Recession Watch: Key Signs to Know When an Economic Downturn Hits Us

As tariff uncertainties shake the markets, economists voice concerns about a potential recession, a scenario even the Trump administration hasn’t dismissed. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, yet signs of distress remain elusive. Recent data reflects a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.1%, but job growth persists with 151,000 new positions added. Experts warn that consumer sentiment and spending are dropping, hinting at economic fragility, albeit no definitive recession signals yet. The looming threat of stagflation—where inflation spikes alongside stagnant growth—adds to the complexities. While caution is warranted, the economy hasn’t reached a breaking point—yet. Understanding these dynamics is crucial as we navigate these turbulent times.